Polls show Florida Republicans poised for big win in 2022

With less than six months to go before the 2022 midterm elections, Florida Republicans are in a strong position at every level.  Biden’s poor approval ratings have Republicans ahead in the generic ballot on the national level.  Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics currently has Republicans ahead by 3.2%.  Some polls show an even more dismal outlook for Congressional Democrats.  A CNN poll conducted last week shows them ahead 7% on the generic ballot.

Governor:

If current approval ratings hold, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will cruise to re-election comfortably.  No polls for the month of May have been released yet, but polling in April showed the Governor with a net positive approval rating of anywhere from ten to fifteen points.    The Governor’s vocal opposition to vaccine and mask mandates has boosted his popularity, according to election analysis by CNN.

Polling has consistently shown that the Governor’s Parental Rights in Education bill is also widely popular in the state.  A poll released by Politico in March showed that Florida voters approve of the measure by a sixteen percent margin.

DeSantis is likely to face Representative Charlie Crist (D-Fl.) in the general election.  A poll conducted in late march shows DeSantis ahead by a comfortable sixteen percent margin.

Senate:

Senator Marco Rubio faces re-election this November.  In the general election, he will likely face Representative Val Demmings (D-Fl.).  No polls were conducted in April for the Senate race, but the most recent polls show Rubio winning the race, though he holds a slimmer margin than DeSantis in the Governor’s race.  In March, Husch Blackwell Strategies released a poll showing Rubio with a net positive approval rating of five points.  Respondents said they would vote to re-elect Rubio by a margin of six points.

Political forecasts made in April by Politico and Inside Elections pegged the Florida Senate race as Likely Republican, while older predictions made in March have the race Leaning Republican.

Congress:

Republicans currently hold sixteen of Florida’s twenty-seven Congressional seats, while Democrats hold eleven.  According to the Cook Political Report, only three of Florida’s Congressional seats are in play, while the other twenty-four are considered ‘Safe’ for the incumbent.  All three seats were held by Democrats; two are open seats, while one is a new seat created by redistricting.  The three seats currently sit in the ‘Likely Republican’ column, meaning Republicans currently stand to pick up three seats.  The three seats are FL-07, FL-13, and FL-15, with FL-15 being the new seat.  If their prediction holds, Democrats will only have eight of Florida’s twenty-seven seats come 2023.


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